Friday 23 January 2009

RECESSION-IT’S OFFICIAL


I have been saying for a while now that we are in recession, now it’s official BBC NEWS.

The strange thing is that the “experts” seem surprised. Neil Mackinnon, chief economist at ECU Group, said; “the GDP figures were "grim" and underscored the depth of the recession.”

"There are no green shoots of recovery, no light at the end of the tunnel," he added.

Andrew Smith, chief economist at KPMG said; "It is difficult to see why things should improve in the foreseeable future,"

We have been sliding down the economic hill for months now, but “they” kept calling it a “downturn”, maybe now they will tell it as it is-a recession.

Pouring billions into the banks to “stimulate lending” won’t work with the general public because the average debt is £9,600 (excluding mortgages) and increases to £21,875 if the average is based on the number of households who actually have some form of unsecured loan. Credit Action

The debt is so high because the banks encouraged people to borrow money on the equity in their properties, the value of which was based on over inflated valuations.

So the man in the street isn’t going to add to this burden, cutting VAT won’t work because the amount saved is too small, unless you are talking about large purchases-cars, etc, which no one is going to buy because they don’t want the extra debt.

The banks MUST be made to ensure money is available for businesses to borrow, because if there are no businesses there are no jobs and no exports, no spending by the public and no recovery.

The banks won’t lend money because they are using the billions to cover their own debts and liabilities, they are not interested in helping business, but only in covering their own arse.

The banks have got themselves in a self-negating cycle, their main income is from mortgage repayments, so they repossess the homes of those with arrears and their income falls, so they ask for more money from the Gov, who borrow it to give to the banks who use it to cover their liabilities.

Banks need to put a hold on mortgage repayments, give every body with a mortgage a six month holiday, and lend to business using the billions fro the Gov (us), give people a chance to have money in their pockets; they will then begin spending which will “Kick start” the economy and allow the economy to recover.

That is the way I see it, it may be bollocks but so is the Government policy at the moment.

Angus

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